Recently a deputy of the World Bank announced that, according to current evidence, most of the Middle East, from Robat to Tehran is facing a shortage of water which is turning into a crisis. He added that the region, extending from Morocco to Iran, is home to 5% of world population but has only 1% of the world’s fresh water
resources.

The shortage of water in the Middle East could ultimately lead to conflicts and confrontations among the various nations of the region, and some clashes are beginning to break out. Some figures may be both
interesting and enlightening. In 1995, 97.5 % of the total world water resources consisted of seawater leaving a total of 2.5% of fresh water. Of this quantity of fresh water 70% was in the form of ice at the two poles. The
remaining 30% was mainly soil humidity or underground water reserves, that were not so easily accessible.

Only 0.007 % of total water resources (saltwater and fresh water put together) were available to human beings
as surface water (lakes, rivers, brooks…) or underground water that could be practically extracted. As to rainwater: the annual rainfall worldwide, in 1995, was some 1,100,000 cubic kilometers or 1.1×1015 cubic meters. Of this amount a considerable portion turned into vapor immediately upon reaching the earth and another considerable part penetrated into the ground.

Only 427,000 cubic kilometers or 0.427×1015 cubic meters of rainfall (38.8%) became available to the world population as surface water (rivers, freshwater ponds…).

The foregoing figures mean that the average annual per capita rainwater available to human beings, in 1995, was 7,300 cubic meters which was 30% below the figure for 1970. This decline in per capita rain water has been concurrent with a rise in consumption. In the 20th century water consumption rose at a staggering rate: from 1900 to 1995 water consumption increased six-fold, that is to say water consumption rose at a rate that was twice the rate of growth of world population.

The main reasons why water consumption has increased so vastly are: irrigated farming which has expanded
considerably, expansion of industrial activities, and greater care about personal hygiene and cleanness.

Coming to the area of consumption: 70% of total consumption goes to irrigated farming which secures 40% of
the food produced worldwide. To give an idea of the size of irrigated farming it should be pointed out that this form of farming takes up 17% of the total area of farmland worldwide. Much of the advances made in food production during the 20th century is the result of irrigated farming.

Number of people in areas of different water shortages & of different incomes (millions)
Per capita income	Ratio of consumption of water to supply
	Less than 10%	10%-20%	21%-40%	More than 40%	Total
Low (less than 795 $ per year)	806.16	1265.89	957.70	238.07	3267.84
Low to medium (796-2895 $ per year)	542.40	285.95	165.33	137.91	1131.59
Medium to high (2896-8953 $ per year)	258.95	13.10	137.30	63.44	472.79
High (more than 8956 $ per year)	108.44	514.41	181.25	19.74	823.84
Total	1721.97	2079.35	1441.58	459.16	5696.06

Another point to consider is that the high rise in the level of water consumption has led to the exploitation of irrecoverable underground water, which provides a major source of drinking water in many parts of the world.

Criteria on shortage of freshwater The shortage of freshwater is classified as “normal”, “medium” and “severe” shortages. There is normal shortage of fresh water when consumption exceeds, by 10%, the total quantity of
precipitations or water running into a region from nearby regions without depletion. If this difference lies between 20% and 40% there is medium shortage and if the figure is above 40% then there is said to be severe
shortage. About 500m people (8% of world population) live in regions that suffer from severe shortage of freshwater; almost 1.5b (25%) live in areas with medium freshwater shortage; and 470m in areas of severe
shortage. Almost 75% of the world population who live under the poverty line, live largely (43 of the 75%) in regions that have 10-40% freshwater shortage.

War for freshwater in Middle East There are increasing alerts in the world that future wars will be over freshwater, and the Middle East is one region in which this war is very likely to take place. Presently there are
serious conflicts between Iraq and Syria on the one hand, and Turkey on the other, over overuse of the freshwater of the river Euphrates by Turkey. This river passes through Turkey before running through Syria
and Iraq, and Turkey is selfishly using the water of both rivers to consolidate its own position in the region. There are three main rivers in these parts of the Middle East:
1) The Euphrates, which, running south, joins
2) the Tigris to form the river Shattolarab which further down becomes river Arvand, and
3) Karoon which runs through Iran to join Arvand river on its way to the Persian Gulf.

1. The Euphrates This river originates in the high lands of Armenia, passes through Turkey then Syria and
then Iraq where it joins the Tigris.
2. The Tigris The Tigris is formed mainly (60%) by snow melting on the Zagross mountains of Iran flowing down on the western side of the range to become a considerable river on the plains of Iraq.
3. The Karoon This is Iran’s largest river. It too originates in the Zagross range, but on the eastern side. It flows down to the plains of Khuzistan Province, passes through this plain and divides into two rivers at Khorramshahr: Bahmansheer diverts to the east to pour into the Persian Gulf and Karoon continues westward for another kilometer or so to join the Arvand.

The Euphrates and the Tigris join each other in Iraq to form the Shattolarab, which becomes Arvand River where it passes along Iranian borders. In fact the Iran-Iraq border runs along the Arvand. Where the Arvand
passes Khorramshahr, the River Karoon joins it and the Arvand continues on to ultimately pour into the Persian Gulf, some 100 km further away.

Turkey’s ambitious plans Turkey plans to make extensive use of the water potentials of the Euphrates. The first dam was completed in 1966. From 1978 till 1993 another three dams were erected on the Euphrates, and the fifth was begun in 1996 at a point close to the Syrian border. The completed project is to embody 22 dams and 17 hydroelectric power generation stations, and is planned to be completed within the period 2010-2015.

When the entire project is completed the rate of flow of water in the Euphrates will be considerably reduced
from the Syria-Turkey border onwards. This will badly affect the water in Arvand River, which is presently the only navigable river in the region and plays a significant role in the region’s ecosystem.

Consequently, Turkey’s project will not only affect Syria and Iraq, but Iran as well. Iran must be aware of Turkey’s undertakings and the consequences it will have for the country. As in the case of the Caspian Sea in the north, the Arvand River in the south is an issue that must be handled carefully and delicately.