In the past 60 years or so the Iranian population has changed remarkably: at one stage the population was very young but now it seems to be ageing.

The census taken of the Iranian population in 1956 revealed the size of the population to be 19 millions. By 2001 this population had expanded to 64.5 millions as officially announced by the country’s authorities though
many experts put the figure at the 70m level, because, they claim, a few million Iraqis and Afghanis live in the country unofficially, their number not being included in the census.

Even if we go by official figures, the population has increased by almost 3.5 times in 44 years, which is indeed alarming. What was even more alarming till a few years ago, however, was the post-Revolution maximum rate of 3.9% population growth that prevailed for a number of years. The major expansion in population took place after the Islamic Revolution of Iran when the number increased from 30m or so in 1979 to almost 70m in 2001 with the result that in the 1990s the Iranian nation became very young with almost 65% of the people below the age of 25.

At this time the government suddenly realized that it had failed to implement proper family regulation programs and attempted to do so then, but without success. During all these years the rate of inflation was also high which meant that the cost of living was rising and the standard of living declining. As younger people became adults and found that they could not afford to have families and make homes because of inflation and the high costs, population growth declined to the present level of 1.4-1.7%.

The Ministry of Health and Medical Education claims the decline to be one of its achievements and gives the
lower figure of 1.4%. The Management and Planning Organization seems to be more reasonable and gives the higher figure of 1.7%. Whichever the correct figure, the decline is not the government’s doing, but poverty’s!
Today, however, while many people may be relieved that the population boom is over, some experts are concerned about the decline because, they fear, a too low level of growth means the ageing of the population and the loss of an important comparative advantage of the country:
young, educated, able human resources. The low population growth has had significant consequences. At one time the Iranian government had to build many schools across the country at all levels and to employ teachers. But now that the population is ageing, i.e. the number of boys and girls below 15 is diminishing (from 46% of the population in 1986 to 32% in 2001), many classes are becoming empty and many teachers idle, particularly at the primary level, and this redundancy will certainly spread to higher levels as well in the future (Table 2).

Migration to cities Since 1956, when 31% of the population lived and worked in urban and 69% in rural areas,
the rural population has been increasingly migrating to the cities and towns, especially the larger cities, and mainly the provincial capitals.

Better hospitals, schools and living conditions in general, which can be found in these cities, and especially the
availability of more jobs, attract many from villages to the cities. Today, 65% of the population lives in towns and only 35% in villages, although the actual number of the rural population has remained the same as a result of population growth during the past years. Thus there is no concern in the villages where there is still surplus population for whom there is no work and who move to towns, but in these towns, there is havoc: buildings have
to be erected to house the incoming people, schools have to be set up, means of public transportation must be provided, increasingly heavier traffic is seen everywhere, air pollution, shortage of treated water… Meanwhile, many villages have grown in size and population to become towns such that the number of towns in the country
has risen from 496 in 1986 to 885 by the end of 2000, i.e. 389 villages have turned into towns in 14 years. This means serious damage to the environment. Iran’s most serious problems at the moment are in the areas of housing, health care, education, and employment especially for the young people. Meeting the demands in these areas requires heavier and heavier investments to be made.

Another serious problem the country faces is the issue of brain-drain, as many of the high quality and highly qualified young Iranians migrate to other countries, mostly to Canada with a much smaller percentage to Australia, New Zealand… Even so the rate of unemployment has been rising among the youth such that today out of the total number of unemployed, i.e. 14.2% of the total population, young men and women who have just arrived in the labor market make up 2%. There is therefore great room for investment in Iran in the science-intensive economic and industrial entities which can attract many young engineers, physicians, physicists, chemists etc, etc. Such industries as communications, electronics, information, engineering and technical services… would be very profitable in Iran and the government is intent to offer help and incentives to foreign
investors. So, welcome foreign investors!