How significant are natural gas, coal, nuclear energy and hydroelectricity in meeting the world’s primary energy
demand?

In 2001, the world consumed 9,124.8 million tons oil equivalent. To put that into some kind of context, that
represents 41 times UK consumption. Given this level, it is unreasonable to expect any “new” fuel to make a significant impact in the short to medium term. For example, if a new and cheap fuel became available tomorrow, how many motorists would immediately exchange their cars, many of which had been bought only in the last five years? Equally, the cost of setting up a new infrastructure for a new fuel, unless, for example, it is one that can be sold via existing outlets, can be colossal.

Factors that determine the choice of “conventional” fuel extend from technology, tax, price and availability, through to exploitation and storage and the impact on the environment. Almost certainly, the UK, once a major coal producer, will eventually abandon its remaining mines, long before they are fully depleted. There are many reasons for this, ranging from economics to environment. Additionally, society is becoming reluctant to see people risk their lives underground, especially when safer alternatives are available.

Those of an imaginative disposition argue that the world will never consume all its oil reserves: a new and cheaper fuel, such as solar power, will emerge to displace oil. They may well be right but it is doubtful if such a development will come in the lifetime of our readers (and writers) unless, of course, there is a similar breathtaking development in medical science.

Perception, as well as reality, plays a role. For example, some individuals believe that natural gas can be damaging to the environment and even an apparently benign source, such as windpower, provokes criticism of the noise coming from the blades of the windmills.

In 1991 oil provided 40.3 per cent of total demand for commercial energy but “only” 38.5 per cent in 2001. Substitution by natural gas accounted for some of this decline. The environmentallyfriendly product, available in greater volumes than previously thought, saw its share of a bigger market move up from 22.7 to 23.7 per cent. The combined oil and gas total of 63.0 and 62.2 explains why the oil and gas groups remain dominant and why some are now putting renewed emphasis on gas.

Coal, too, suffered from increased competition from natural gas and its stake declined from 28.0 to 24.7 per cent. Confronted by fears, justified or not, nuclear power made little progress. Although the volume rose by 16.9 per cent, on a low base, it still only met 6.6 per cent of world energy demand. Hydroelectricity, to some extent dependent on the weather, contributed the remaining 6.5 per cent. How significant are natural gas reserves and where are they located?

The level of proved reserves, at the end of 2001, would not be exhausted for 61.9 years if production at the 2001 level was sustained. A comparable figure for crude oil was 40.3. The Russian Federation holds nearly 31 per cent of the global total and it is followed by Iran with close on 15 per cent and Qatar with just over 9 per cent. Indeed, the aggregate stake of these three countries at 54.8 per cent, represents a concentration which is comparable to the 44.9 per cent of world oil reserves in the three most prolific countries. Seven of the leading 10 countries, in terms of the size of gas reserves, are members of OPEC: this is the same number
as for oil. All this suggests that the organization’s role will be sustained for many years. From a regional perspective, which is important for geopolitical reasons, the most important areas are the former Soviet Union, which is home to 36.2 per cent of proven reserves, followed by the Middle East, with 36.1 per cent. The European share is negligible, at 3.1 per cent, as is North America with 4.9 percent.

What about the production and consumption of natural gas?

Relatively little natural gas enters into international trade, compared to oil. That, undoubtedly, has slowed the
expansion of demand but, as more cost-effective methods of transport are developed, changes can be expected. This point is illustrated by the fact that six of the leading 10 natural gas consuming nations also appear in the list of the 10 leading gas producers. Making the same analysis in relation to oil shows only four countries that appear in the lists of leading producers and consumers. (See table 3)

How prolific are coal reserves? Applying the usual reserves to production test, global coal reserves at the end of 2001 would meet, the then current levels of extraction for 216 years. The US, increasingly dependent on oil imports, has sufficient coal reserves to sustain production for 246 years and accounts for 25.4 per cent of the world total. The former Soviet Union’s reserves constitute 23.4 per cent of the global figure and Europe, excluding the FSU, contributes 12.7 per cent. The only other significant nations are China with 11.6 and Australia with 8.3 percent.

oal production and demand The US and China together account for 50.7 per cent of global production, followed by Australia with 7.5 per cent, India (7.2), South Africa (5.6), and the Russian Federation with 5.4 per cent.

Thus six nations produce marginally more than three quarters of world output. Many readers, based in Europe
but outside the FSU, may well feel that coal has long since ceased to be a major fuel. They are right but only in respect of their own region. In 1991, coal consumption was 453.1 million tons oil equivalent. By 2001, it had fallen by 24 per cent to account for just 18 per cent of total energy demand.

However, some countries have registered interesting expansion in the same period. For example, US coal demand moved up by 16 per cent and, in 2001, met 25 per cent of indigenous energy demand. South African consumption has increased by 15 per cent in the decade and the country relies on coal for three quarters of its
energy consumption. Nearly four fifths of coal consumption is concentrated in the leading 10 states and, in
line with expectations generated by the data on production, the US (24.6 percent) and China (23.1) lead. Other prominent consumers are India, Japan, Germany and South Africa.

Nuclear power and hydroelectricity The concentration of nuclear power is more pronounced than for any other fuel. In 2001, the US consumed 183.2 million tons of oil equivalent, which represented 30.5 per cent of the world total. It was a rise of some 25 per cent since 1991 which meant that it met about 8.2 per cent of national energy demand.

France accounted for 15.8 per cent of the global total in 2001 and Japan 12.1. The remaining 41.6 per cent was spread over another 28 nations which have some nuclear capability. In 2001, the leading nations consuming hydroelectricity were Canada, which accounted for 12.6 per cent of the global total, Brazil (10.3), China (9.8), the US (8.1), Russian Federation (6.7) and Norway with 4.6.